A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
